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United States President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in a high-stakes summit in Alaska on Friday (Aug 15).

At the top of the agenda is the war in Ukraine, with Trump hoping to persuade Putin to compromise on a peace agreement.

However, some analysts whom �鶹 spoke to expressed scepticism that Trump will be able to convince the Russian leader to agree to a deal that also addresses Ukraine’s concerns.

Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute, said Putin is a skilled negotiator and will likely have the upper hand in the meeting.

“(Putin’s) mastery of details has been a hallmark of his approach to negotiations. Trump doesn't have that,” he told �鶹’s East Asia Tonight programme.

“It's more likely that Putin will be able to dominate the meeting and lead Trump to a direction that Putin wants.”

This will be the first in-person meeting between Putin and a US president since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reportedly not been invited to the summit.

European powers bristled at Ukraine’s exclusion and scrambled to engage Trump ahead of the Anchorage meeting amid fears the US leader may sell Kyiv out.

Observers have expressed dismay at Trump’s move, calling his invitation to Putin to meet on US soil a “major breakthrough” for the Russian president. It will be Putin’s first time in the US in a decade.

Analyst H A Hellyer said the face-to-face event would be “unthinkable under pretty much any other president in recent American history”.

“The framing is very problematic. (It) sends a very poor message to Europe and Ukraine,” said the senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence think tank.

“(This) frankly emboldens and encourages Putin at a time when you want to push back against a sense of impunity and increase the sense of accountability.”

Trump has since agreed Ukraine must be involved in any talks about ceding land and promised to arrange a three-way summit involving Kyiv if Friday’s talks go well. 

WHAT PUTIN COULD DO FOR TRUMP

Experts said Putin, who is seeking to retain as much Ukrainian territory as possible, could attempt to “win Trump over” with financial rewards.

“One of Putin's biggest goals at this summit will be to show the US the benefits of essentially agreeing with (Russia’s) position and vision for an end to the war in Ukraine,” said independent Eurasia geopolitical analyst Matthew Orr.

Back in February, amid US talks with Ukraine over a critical mineral deal, Putin offered Washington access to rare minerals in Russia, including in Russian-occupied Ukraine. It is a playbook he could pull out again in Alaska.

Orr said that such proposals, aside from financial gains for the US, will also speak to Trump’s interests in countering China.

“The idea is that if the Americans play a larger role in Russia's mineral sector, then presumably it's the Chinese who would lose out on being the main beneficiaries of that cooperation,” he added.

“This is a piece of cooperation that's directed against China. The Russians want to offer that as an enticing carrot to the US.”

Trump previously suggested that a ceasefire deal could involve territorial exchanges.

Russia’s hardline demands for ending the conflict include Ukrainian withdrawal of forces from regions Moscow claims to have annexed, amounting to about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Ukraine has rejected ceding parts of its land.

“(Putin’s) goal is also to frame the Ukrainians and Europeans as the obstacles to peace. But if the Ukrainians were to accept that demand, that would be very destabilising to Kyiv,” said Orr.

IS TRUMP EMBOLDENING RUSSIA?

Some analysts said they believe harsher sanctions targeting Russia’s economy could be instrumental in pushing Moscow into a fairer peace deal.

“The only element that could really weaken Putin's hand is everything related to the Russian economy. Trump will have to reach for new sanctions against Moscow in order to really get it to weaken its negotiating position,” said Orr.

“In theory, there can be much greater restrictions on Russia's oil and gas sector, like LNG (liquified natural gas) exports … or secondary sanctions on countries that are cooperating with Russia economically.”

However, Orr cautioned Putin likely does not believe Washington will do that, as it will hurt US bilateral relationships with key partners - including India - that are still purchasing Russian commodities.

Hellyer said while the US has leverage and ability to push Russia to the negotiating table, there has been a “lack of political will” under Trump’s administration.

He added that since taking office in January, Trump has emboldened Moscow by courting Putin and cutting support for Ukraine. These moves include pushing Kyiv into the minerals deal and openly berating Zelenskyy.

“It gives the impression that Ukraine is not allied to the US, and the US doesn't stand firmly behind Ukraine. (This) will encourage the Russians to take more territory in Ukraine,” Hellyer said.

“That's not going to help bring this war to a close. This makes the fragmentation of the rules-based order even more so.”

Analysts said that Putin is in no hurry to seal a deal.

Moscow has more firepower and military might compared to Kyiv, and the Kremlin strengthens its negotiating advantage with the more territory it captures.

Ahead of the Anchorage meeting, Russian soldiers have made a sudden thrust deeper into Ukraine to seize more land.  

“Russians (have the ability) to continue the degradation of the Ukrainian army – a war of attrition – for several more months,” said Orr. 

“I don't think Trump is going to be able to offer Putin the things that are going to make Putin agree to a ceasefire in short order.”